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PENSIM output file .ARC

--- .ARC file contains revenue and cost (that is, solvency) statistics
         for the employer-sponsored-pension immediate annuity provider and
         for the employer-sponsored-pension deferred annuity provider.

The PENSIM runNNNNN.arc file has no heading lines and no summary
lines.  The file contains present value of annuity provider
revenue and cost by scenario and gender for a birth cohort sample.
The statistics on each line are separated by the tab character.

The meaning of annuity provider revenue depends on the value of
OUTPUT.arc_immyrs.  If arc_immyrs=0, then revenue in a year is
equal to annuity contract sale proceeds in that year.  If
arc_immyrs>0, then annuity contract sale proceeds are not
immediately recognized, but are invested in a ladder of
zero-coupon Treasury bonds (each one of which has a yield equal
to the current Treasury bond yield) that match the expected
annuity contract payments for up to arc_immyrs years.  In other
words, when arc_immyrs>0, the annuity provider pursues a cashflow
matching strategy in an attempt to immunize its annuity contract
payment liabilities.

The logical structure of a line is as follows:

( 1) scenario number
( 2) gender: female, male, both
( 3) present value of immediate annuity provider revenue (in
       billions of dollars) with present value expressed in year
       the cohort turns 65 and calculated using nominal annual
       revenues weighted by sample_pct and using nominal Treasury
       interest rates plus OUTPUT.arc_spread as the discount rate
       in each year
( 4) present value of immediate annuity provider cost (in
       billions of dollars) with present value expressed in year
       the cohort turns 65 and calculated using nominal annual
       costs weighted by sample_pct and using nominal Treasury
       interest rates plus OUTPUT.arc_spread as the discount rate
       in each year
( 5) the ratio of (3) and (4) -- see IMPORTANT NOTE below
( 6) present value of deferred annuity provider revenue (in
       billions of dollars) with present value expressed in year
       the cohort turns 65 and calculated using nominal annual
       revenues weighted by sample_pct and using nominal Treasury
       interest rates plus OUTPUT.arc_spread as the discount rate
       in each year
( 7) present value of deferred annuity provider cost (in
       billions of dollars) with present value expressed in year
       the cohort turns 65 and calculated using nominal annual
       costs weighted by sample_pct and using nominal Treasury
       interest rates plus OUTPUT.arc_spread as the discount rate
       in each year
( 8) the ratio of (6) and (7) -- see IMPORTANT NOTE below
( 9) meaningless statistic whose value is always zero
(10) pv deferred annuity revenue for indivs who claim at age 61 or less
(11) pv deferred annuity    cost for indivs who claim at age 61 or less
(12) solvency ratio for indivs who claim at age 61 or less: (10)/(11)
(13) pv deferred annuity revenue for indivs who claim at age 62
(14) pv deferred annuity    cost for indivs who claim at age 62
(15) solvency ratio for indivs who claim at age 62: (13)/(14)
(16) pv deferred annuity revenue for indivs who claim at age 63
(17) pv deferred annuity    cost for indivs who claim at age 63
(18) solvency ratio for indivs who claim at age 63: (16)/(17)
(19) pv deferred annuity revenue for indivs who claim at age 64
(20) pv deferred annuity    cost for indivs who claim at age 64
(21) solvency ratio for indivs who claim at age 64: (19)/(20)
(22) pv deferred annuity revenue for indivs who claim at age 65
(23) pv deferred annuity    cost for indivs who claim at age 65
(24) solvency ratio for indivs who claim at age 65: (22)/(23)
(25) pv deferred annuity revenue for indivs who claim at age 66
(26) pv deferred annuity    cost for indivs who claim at age 66
(27) solvency ratio for indivs who claim at age 66: (25)/(26)
(28) pv deferred annuity revenue for indivs who claim at age 67
(29) pv deferred annuity    cost for indivs who claim at age 67
(30) solvency ratio for indivs who claim at age 67: (28)/(29)
(31) pv deferred annuity revenue for indivs who claim at age 68
(32) pv deferred annuity    cost for indivs who claim at age 68
(33) solvency ratio for indivs who claim at age 68: (31)/(32)
(34) pv deferred annuity revenue for indivs who claim at age 69
(35) pv deferred annuity    cost for indivs who claim at age 69
(36) solvency ratio for indivs who claim at age 69: (34)/(35)
(37) pv deferred annuity revenue for indivs who claim at age 70
(38) pv deferred annuity    cost for indivs who claim at age 70
(39) solvency ratio for indivs who claim at age 70: (37)/(38)
(40) pv deferred annuity revenue for indivs who claim at age 71 or more
(41) pv deferred annuity    cost for indivs who claim at age 71 or more
(42) solvency ratio for indivs who claim at age 71 or more: (40)/(41)

IMPORTANT NOTE: The value of the revenue-to-cost ratio statistics,
      (5) and (8), should be no less than one.  A ratio of exactly
      one ensures that provider revenues cover the cost of making
      the annuity payments, but do not cover any administrative
      or marketing costs or any profits on reserve capital held
      by the provider.

ANOTHER NOTE: in a stochastic run with more than one scenario, be
      sure that the all-scenario revenue-to-cost ratio for each
      gender is at least one.  For example, compute the female
      all-scenario ratio at the Windows command prompt in the
      directory containing the runNNNNN.arc file using the
      following two commands:
      > gawk "$2~/female/" runNNNNN.arc | mean - 3
      > gawk "$2~/female/" runNNNNN.arc | mean - 4
      The first command calculates the mean value across all scenarios
      of the revenue statistic (3), while the second command calculates
      the mean value across all scenarios of the cost statistic (4).
      The all-scenario ratio is simply the first mean divided by the
      second mean.